TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)
Major Indices Week of November 7, 2025
NYSE Volume
Extreme Fear & Extreme Valuations
As goes tech, so goes the market. Stocks traded a wildly volatile week with prices moving dramatically lower and then recovering massively in Friday’s trade. Sentiment is all over the map and highly conflicted. Headlines were calling for 50K Dow while many indicators sat in extreme fear. There are any number of indicators that are running “burning the cake” hot, while the more pedestrian readings have mostly moved into extreme fear. November is historically a rougher month for stocks, and many analysts are looking for a traditional -5%/-10% move to occur here.
Also, we know that the Fed is ending QT and is about to start buying the massive debt once again. Ray Dalio wrote about this during the past week: “Stimulating Into a Bubble”
Is This a Bubble?
“AGI is basically a human-level intelligent computer, a milestone that many theorize will either launch humanity to unimaginable heights or send us all to extinction.”
The current AI Bubble has been driven by insane valuations of only a handful of companies. The top ten stocks in the S&P 500 account for 80% of ALL growth in 2025 and 42%+ of the entire net worth of the S&P. If AI companies are removed from the economy, U.S. GDP has only grown by +0.1% all year.
Hyperscaling, Growth Hacking and Blitz Scaling are the buzz words used for today’s top stocks.
Wages are not Hyperscaling, job growth is not Hyperscaling. The only thing Hyperscaling in a “K Shaped Economy” is the wealth of the top 1-2%.
In a twist of irony, Open A.I. is asking the taxpayers to provide ‘loan guarantees’ for up to $1 trillion dollars in investments. A company with zero profits, that promises to go public at a valuation of $500 billion, wants the government to guarantee $1 trillion in speculative investment in a technology that is totally unregulated and for which no one knows exactly what the outcome might be.
So far, AI has given us “AI Slop,” videos that are basically undetectable from something genuine and robots that foment trash talk in comment sections of social media feeds because…Rage Sells.
Two major developments this past week were the clustering of the Hindenburg Omen, coupled with the Nasdaq Titanic Syndrome. Does this mean that the markets will not wheel around and surge to record highs…taking the Dow above the elusive 50K level? Not at all. This timing window is huge and runs into early 2026. A vertical is not out of the question.
“I am going to put out a timing update tomorrow. I believe that we are looking at the bottom of the 9th inning now for stocks and that the end of this move will come in this long window we are in…most likely by the first month or two of 2026. Certainly, by the 1st quarter. The market has now issued a Hindenburg Omen, and now a Nasdaq Titanic Syndrome which can be a preliminary red-flag that prices are within a couple months of a major turning point. which fits with the current timing data.”
Last week I mentioned that Michael Burry had come out of hibernation with his first Tweet in 2.5 years. Then, this week, it was announced that his Scion Asset Management had taken huge short positions. “Scion bought roughly $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.” PLTR -11.24%, NVDA -7.08%.
What makes things “burning the cake” hot is the market concentration coupled with speculative retail traders. Retail call volume on the MAG7/MAG10 has hit records while the MAG10 hit a new ATH at 42%+ concentration. These, along with the single-stock SKEW hitting levels of extreme complacency, point to a frothy market environment.
On the flipside is the bottom of the K-Shaped Economy and Consumer Sentiment numbers dropping toward all-time record lows. Hence the extreme fear.
Consumer staples are forming a massive rounding top and threatening the 2025 lows.
Part of the large negative sentiment for the country is the jobs market. ADP reported small job gains for October and the U.S. Government won’t release any financial data. On Friday, CNN reported that October layoffs hit a two decade high for the month. For 2025, there have been over 1.1 million jobs lost and yet we are not getting any reports to confirm the data.
With QE coming and liquidity tightening, are we running the risk of runaway inflation heading into 2026?
Margin debt has exploded to over $1.2 trillion. Small traders are highly leveraged.
Let’s come back to where all the gigawatts of electricity will come from with all these phantom trillions of dollars to build “data centers” the size of cities. China leads the world in renewables and by 2030 will account for 50% of all renewable energy. Australia is producing so much solar power that they are giving away three hours per day of free electricity. In the United States, we have destroyed all efforts to develop and use renewable energy.
The XLF/SPY is sitting at multiyear lows last seen in the 2020 and 2008 crashes.
SPX Monthly H-L-C
The SPX monthly still offers the super bull scenario as prices trade above the overhead trendline that connects the 1929 tops through the 2000 Dot-Com tops. If prices start to trade back under the trendline, it could signal selling in equities. It still holds potential for a continued blowoff move.
The Buffet Indicator sits near ATHs, now reading at 220.2%.
Dow Theory
Dow Theory still shows a bearish divergence….but last week saw a large bullish divergence between the Transports and the Industrials.
S&P 500 Stocks Above the 200-day MA
Breadth is still deteriorating (ala the Hindenburg Omen). The share of SPX stocks above the 200-day MA dropped to 54.07%. The high in September 2024 was 72.92% and 82.70% in March of 2024. Divergence remains the name of the game. 10 stocks make up 40% of the SPX. (See above)
MAGS (Magnificent 7) Weekly Candles
The MAGS sold off sharply and closed near the weekly lows, down -3.40%. The chart still has higher targets at 74.00/74.30. Support is now 61.99 and 57.60. Under 57.60 can test 54.05 with critical support at 50.49/50.00.
The RSP:SPY bounced after hitting multi-decade lows. The weekly is trending lower in an oversold position and the MACD is down. Resistance remains pivotal at .294. The IWM traded a seven-week low and settled in the middle of the range, down -1.88%. The RSP hit the 20W MA and then popped to close near the weekly high, down -0.20%. NVDA sold off sharply and closed in the lower end of the range, shedding -7.08% on the week, just one week after briefly eclipsing a +$5T market cap level. Bitcoin plunged to the lowest levels since June, briefly trading under $100K and closing near the lows, down -6.63%. Support is pivotal at 100.35/100.00 and 94.26/94.00. Resistance is 11260 and 11580/11600. McClellan Oscillators support the selloff in the Dow. The Yield Curve expanded slightly on the week closing at +0.533%. The 10YR yield was flat, closing at 4.093% after surging to 4.15% during the week. Truflation increased to 2.54%.
10YR-2YR Yield Curve Weekly
VIX Weekly Candles 
The VIX soared above 20 during the week but ended at 19.08. up +9.40% near the middle of the week’s range. The US Dollar rallied to the highest level since late July and then reversed to close on the bottom of the range, down -0.16%.
Nasdaq 100 Weekly Candles
Daily Breadth 
Breadth was relieved on Friday but declined on the week and sentiment still reads extreme fear.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
The CNN Fear and Greed Index is 21 and reads extreme fear. Breadth declined on the week and sentiment still reads extreme fear. Latest AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Jumps. The Dow A/D flattened to 6955. The VIX soared above 20 during the week but ended at 19.08. up +9.40% near the middle of the week’s range. The Put/Call closed at 0.71 and reads extreme fear. The 52-week, A/D declined to +0.87% and reads extreme fear. The Dow closed the week down -1.21%, closing in the bottom half of the range. The S&P dropped -1.63% closing in the bottom of the range. The Nasdaq Composite was down -3.09% and the Nasdaq 100 was down -3.04%. The NYSE FANG closed down sharply -2.99% near the lower end of the range but well off the intraday lows on Friday. The Russell was down -1.88% in the top of the range. The 10-year notes closed flat in a tight range. The yield on the 10YR was flat at 4.093%.
The CRB Index was flat, up +0.11%. Crude Oil closed slightly lower as it moves back under the critical $60 level. Gold closed unchanged as it holds just above the $4000 level. Silver was also flat on the week as it holds around the $48 level.
Timing Points
Friday marks minor timing. The next critical area is the 19th/20th.
- 11/14 **
- 11/19-20 ***
- 11/25 **
- 12/04 ***
- 12/15 *** X may run through
- 12/17 *** X key to bonds/interest rates
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly H-L-C
The Dow closed the week down -1.21% near the lower end of the week’s range after being down as much as -2.24% as the index came close to a pivotal area of support at 46440/46435. The daily stochastics are down. The MACD is down and reacting to a preliminary bearish divergence. The daily RSI is 48.70. The 200-day MA starts the week at 44251.40 and is at record highs. The weekly is down as it reacts to a bearish divergence. Last week saw headlines discussing 50K Dow, so it is not unusual to see a reaction here. (See above comments regarding November corrections).
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly Candles
Prices dropped near a pivotal area of support at 46440/46435. Support is now 46805, 46746 and 46687/46685. A breakdown under 46685 sets up 46620/46613 with counts to 46495 and 46440/46435. Closes under 46435 should test 46385 should minimally test 46099/46062 with full potential to 45452/45450. A breakdown with closes under 45452 can test 45343 with counts to critical short-term support at 44948. Daily closes below 44948 are bearish and suggest a move as low as 43674.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly H-L-C
The hourly is neutral and coming off oversold conditions. Resistance is 47085/47094, 47268 and 47450/47460. A breakout above 47460 sets up 47654/47675 and will open potential for a retest of the record highs at 48040/48078. Daily closes over 48078 have potential to 48222. A breakout over 48222 sets up 48366 with counts to 48510. Closes over 48510 will open counts toward 48654 with potential to 48798. Above 48798 opens counts to 48942 and 49086.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Candles
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S&P 500 Cash Index: SPX
S&P 500 Index Weekly H-L-C
The S&P plunged as much as -3.05% on the week and rallied sharply Friday to reverse higher to close out the week down -1.63% in the lower half of the weekly range. The intraweek low took the SPX to a -3.76% decline from the ATH. As noted above, many analysts are looking for the November -5%/-10% pullback. The daily has hooked lower in the stochastics and MACD is down as they both react to recent bearish divergences. The daily RSI closed at 43.69. The weekly is down with a bearish divergence. The hourly is neutral with Friday’s close and coming off oversold conditions. The 200-day MA is 6238.28 and at record highs.
SPY Weekly Candles
Prices dropped to a zone of support at 6660 through 6643. Support is 6692, 6680 and 6669/6667 with this band of key support through 6643/6631. A breakdown with closes under 6631 can retest the swings at 6555/6550. Closes below 6550 suggest a test of 6360 through 6643. pivotal near-term support at 6514/6510. Closes under 6510 open counts to key support at 6361/6360. A breakdown under 6360 should test 6123 with full counts into the 6044 level with critical hourly support at 6212/6201. Daily closes under 6044 should minimally test 5877 and 5799/5798 with counts to 5631/5628.
S&P 500 Index Hourly H-L-C
Resistance is 6741, 6775 and 6809/6811. A drive over 6811 should test 6848/6852 with counts back to 6880/6882. A drive over 6882 retest 6908/6920. Closes over 6920 open counts to 6944 and 6980 through 7016. A close over 7016 offers counts to 7088, 7160 and 7214. Closes over 7214 setup a drive to 7250 and 7286 while opening counts as high as 7448. Above 7488 counts to 7520 and 7592. A drive above 7592 can test 7664 with counts to 7736 and as high as 7808.
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Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc., CNN, Koyfin, Trading View and AAII