TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)

Tracking the Ten Year Note

Ten Year Notes Daily Continuation H-L-C

Ten Year Notes Volume

(source: CME Group)

The JUN24 (TYM24) 10-year Notes rallied sharply last Friday and we head into a big week with Fed Chairman Powell set to testify on Capital Hill and then February Unemployment Data out on Friday (estimates 210K versus 353K in January). The action on the TYM24 left the hourly in an overbought condition and early overnight trade has the futures down slightly. The daily chart is turning up with the rally from some deeply oversold conditions. Volume picked up a bit last week on the CME and the 20-year TLT has seen some huge volume as it has tried to form a bottom over the past few months. Most, if not all, forecasts for the Fed to reduce rates have shifted from a March date to, at best, a June date…with many analysts predicting that there will be ZERO rate cuts in 2024 as the US economy stays strong and inflationary pressures remain high. Note that today marks minor cycle timing with focus on the bonds and possibly the US Dollar.

TLT Monthly H-L-C

(Big volume at the lows. Chart: TradingView)

JUN-JUN 10 Year Notes Weekly Continuation H-L-C

The JUN-JUN weekly is in a downtrend in the stochastics and the daily continuation has caught short-term support against the 50% retracement level of the rally off the October 2023 lows. Support, basis the TYM24, is 110240, 110185, 110135 and pivotal/critical at 110090/110080. Closes under 110080 counts to 109315 with potential to 109110. Support is critical on the daily continuation at 108125/108100. Support is critical on the Monthly chart through 104050/104010.

JUN-JUN 10 Year Notes Monthly Continuation H-L-C

Resistance for the TYM24 is pivotal at 111010/111035. A breakout in the JUN above 111035 should test 111125 with trading resistance of 111090/111095. Rallies over 111125 can carry to 111245 and 111285 with potential to critical near-term resistance of 112125/112135. A breakout with closes over 112135 opens potential to 113285/113315 with trading resistance at 112300/112320. Closes over 113315 would confirm a significant bottom and project to targets in the 118270 level.

TYM24 Hourly H-L-C

Resistance

• 111010/111035 *** ↑
• 111090/111095 ***
• 111125 *** ↑
• 111245 **
• 111285 *** ↑
• 112125/112135 *** ↑
• 112300/112320 **
• 113285/113315 *** ↑
• 114075/114130 *** ↑
• 115030 **
• 115185 **
• 116160 ***↑
• 117000 *** ↑
• 118270 *** ↑

Support

• 110240 **
• 110185 **
• 110135 *** ↓
• 110090/110080 *** ↓
• 109315 ***
• 109110 *** ↓
• 108125/108100 *** ↓
• 107110 **
• 106110 **
• 105215 *** ↓
• 104050/104010 *** ↓
  

Charts courtesy of CQG