TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)
Major Indices Week of March 28, 2025
NYSE Volume
Nasdaq IXIC Daily Candles
“Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” –Paul Tudor Jones
Stocks traded a wild week with a sharp gap higher on Monday (on Tariff Tantrums) and then plunged late in the critical timing window of Thursday/Friday, in part on yet more Tariff Tantrums and a hotter than expected PCE. Bonds rallied and yields dropped while the Yield Curve expanded with tech stocks leading the market lower, erasing all of the previous week’s recovery. A reminder that the month of April continues a larger window where things should remain volatile.
Consumer Confidence absolutely cratered to the lowest level in four years. Inflation Expectation soared to a 32-year high while the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations jumped to the highest levels since 2022.
Market sentiment tempered last week with some optimism returning. That said, the Nasdaq Composite rallied to test the 200-day MA and failed. As the quote above says: “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.”
The charts, post the high volume Triple Witching Friday, initially rejected the bear flag pattern before cratering late in the week to carry the indexes back toward the low closes for the current declines. The reality is that we still have critical cycle timing running minimally into early May and very strong potential to run all the way through Q4 2025.
We will enter April still negotiating the reality of tariffs. Bringing back the chart from last week, if the proposed tariffs all take place as predicted, it will take tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Are we potentially heading toward the “Gradually and then suddenly” stages? Hiring has hit recession levels while Weekly Hours Worked continues to decline (typically precedes job declines). Money Supply is rising again after a two year decline.
Is $LULU, Luluemon this week’s FedEx…a canary in a consumer coalmine? Consumer stocks are reflecting the massive declines in Consumer Confidence. With European banks cutting rates and gobbling up large amounts of treasuries, the Atlanta Fed is still predicting a decline in Q1 GDP to -2.8%. 
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.”—Atlanta Fed
Dow Theory
Dow Theory still has a bearish pattern.
MAGS (Magnificent 7) Daily H-L-C
The MAGS (Magnificent 7) jumped higher from its bear flag and had a bullish close on Tuesday, clearing the 200-day MA, only to collapse to close 5 cents off the current closing low. Still believe this chart holds the keys as it represents the massive influx of retail trade over the past two years. The MACD has come off oversold levels and threatens to hook lower. There is very little volume underneath current levels and a further breakdown could potentially take this index toward the 2024 lows….minimally to 42-40 level. Selling against the 48 level remains is the strategy.
The RSP:SPY ended higher but on the bottom of the weekly range with the RSP collapsing hard on Friday. The IWM traded back under 200 and closed just above that area in an outside week down. The RSP also traded an outside week down and set a new weekly closing low for the decline. NVDA closed the week down -6.82% lower on bottom of the week’s range as CoreWeave $CRWV failed to wow. Bitcoin reversed lower on the week, ending in the bottom of the range. McClellan Oscillators remain neutral for the Dow. The Yield Curve closed higher on the week. The 10YR yield ended basically unchanged but well off the week’s highs at 4.253%. Truflation increased to 1.78%.
10YR-2YR Yield Curve Daily
VIX Weekly H-L-C
The VIX reversed higher on the week and closed on the top end of the week’s range back over the 20 level. The US Dollar reversed lower and closed on the bottom of the range.
Nasdaq 100 Weekly H-L-C
52-Week A/D Line 
Breadth weakened and sentiment remains in extreme fear.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Sentiment remains in fear and extreme fear. The CNN Fear and Greed Index read 22 on Friday, down from 27 and reads extreme fear. Breadth is weaker and reads extreme fear. Latest AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Drops. The Dow A/D ended flat at 6755, the MACD jumped from oversold levels but can be setting up to turn down again. The VIX reversed on the week, closing on the top end of the week’s range. The Put/Call ended at 0.79 and reads extreme fear. The 52-week, A/D is at -2.13% and reads extreme fear. The Dow closed the week down -0.96%, closing on the bottom of reversal range. The S&P was down -1.53% on the bottom of a wide outside week down at a new weekly closing low for the decline. middle of the range. The Nasdaq Composite closed down -2.59% at a new weekly closing low for the move on the bottom of an outside week down and the Nasdaq 100 was down -2.39%. The FANG slumped sharply, settling down -4.05% on the bottom of a wide outside week down at a new weekly closing low and is approaching bear market territory at -17.55% from the top now. The Russell was down -1.64% in the bottom of the range. The 10-year notes closed flat/higher in a reversal at the top of the week’s range. The yield on the 10YR was flat at to 4.253%.
The CRB Index ended flat, closing down -0.03%. Crude oil rallied back above $70 and closed just under that level with the weekly threatening to turn higher. Gold continued to surge to record highs and closed in the top of the weekly range. The CoT for the S&P 500 saw commercials making a big jump while non-commercials sold. The CFTC S&P 500 Non-Commercial Net Positions moved big, ending at -52.4K and seems to illustrate shorts reentering the market. Sellers still have a 6-day window.
Timing Points
This month continues CRITICAL timing. The next timing date is Monday the 7th. The next critical timing point is April 21st. Wednesday we will get ADP Employment and Factory Orders and Friday is the U.S. Employment Report (est. +140K).
- 04/07 **
- 04/12 **
- 04/21 *** Critical with potential for wide ranges/volatility
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly Candles
The Dow started the week with a gap and ended with a collapse, settling back under the 200-day MA. The daily stochastics are starting to turn back down, the RSI is bearish as it is back under 40 and the MACD is threatening to hook lower. The current double-top pattern still offers lower targets in the 38634 level. All the moving averages are in downtrends. The 21-day MA is under both the 50-day MA and the 100-day MA and the 50-day MA has crossed under the 100-day MA. The weekly is in a sell signal. The hourly ended the week oversold with Friday’s breakdown. The 200-day MA starts the week at 42006.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly H-L-C
Prices ended just above pivotal short-term support at 41486/41480. A breakdown under 41480 should minimally test 41201/41171. Under 41171 sets up 40929 with potential to retest 40665/40661. Closes under 40661 open counts to 40008/39993 area with key support at 40338 and 40204/40200. A breakdown under 39993 sets up a decline to 38734/38634 (targets) with support at 39737/39720. Closes under 38634 opens counts to 37196/37190 with support of 38499, 38400 and 37611.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly H-L-C
Resistance is 41949 and pivotal at 42339/42347. A breakout above the 42347 area sets up a retest of 42506 with counts to 42745/42750 and a retest of 42821 through 42858. A drive above 42858 sets up 43190 and 43237 with critical resistance at 43376/43380. Closes over 43380 sets up 43956 through 44017. A breakout with closes over 44017 opens longer-term potential toward the intraday trading highs against the 45054/45074 level. Closes over 45074 opens counts toward 45244 and 45426 (Fibonacci target).
| Resistance | Support |
|
|
S&P 500 Cash Index: SPX
S&P 500 Index Weekly H-L-C
The S&P gapped above the 200-day MA on Monday and then cratered in the critical timing Thursday/Friday to end the week lower on the bottom of a large outside week down. The daily is hooking lower in the stochastics, the RSI is back under 40and the MACD is threatening to hook lower. The index is back under the 200-day MA. The weekly stochastics remain in a sell signal. The hourly ended oversold with Friday’s selloff. The 200-day MA is 5702.52.
S&P 500 Index Daily Candles
SPY Weekly
The hourly ended the week oversold as prices tested last-gasp near-term support at 5574/5571. A continued breakdown under 5571 should test 5549 with counts to the swing lows at 5505/5504. Closes under 5504 can test critical short-term support of 5367/5350 with support at 5493/5490. Daily closes under 5350 sets up 5289 and 5244/5240 with full counts to 5125/5119. Closes under 5199 will open counts into the 4884/4880 area. Closes under 4880 are bearish and open counts to 4614 through 4586. Under 4586 can carry to 4486 with counts to 4418.
S&P 500 Index Hourly H-L-C
Resistance is 5618/5623. A drive back above 5623 can test 5654 with counts to 5679 and 5704/5707. A breakout over 5707 can test 5750 sets up 5802/5805. A breakout over 5805 suggests counts to 5901/5904. Closes over 5904 count to 5987/5996. Daily closes over 5996 suggest 6043 and opens counts to 6112/6114 and full counts into critical resistance at the intraday high of 6147.43. Rallies through 6148 should test 6160 with a shot at a target of 6180.35. A drive with closes over 6181 can test 6206 with pivotal resistance at 6224. A drive over 6224 will open potential to the 6278.80 objectives with a shot at 6296. Above 6296 can carry to 6368 with counts into the 6440 area. Closes over 6440 will open counts to 6584.
| Resistance | Support |
|
|
Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc., CNN, Koyfin, Trading View and AAII
