TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)
Happy Labor Day!
Major Indices Week of August 22, 2025
NYSE Volume
MAGS+ORCL+PLTR+AVGO Daily Candles
As goes tech, so goes the market. Stocks traded a quiet pre-holiday week with focus on NVDA earnings on Wednesday and the PCE report on Friday. NVDA is now larger than the entire market in the UK and the MAG7 stocks now compromise 33% of the entire U.S. market and 34%+ of the SPX. Seven stocks make up over one third of the entire market in the United States. Talk about “All the eggs in one basket.”
The combined chart of MAGS+ORCL+PLTR+AVGO along with ARKK shows cracks from the massive up move off the April lows. Is this the first sign of a shift in stocks with sentiment and complacency at very high levels? The reality is that insiders are selling the highflyers while retail trade continues to pile in (as the buy the dip mentality floods the Reddit and YouTube channels). That, and the NVDA super bulls are out.
August has ended with the fourth up month in a row for stocks. And, although we did not see a major exogenous event (yet), this does not rule out a Challenger-type event in the next two months as we potentially track 1987’s cycles.
“Remember in the last Cycle Timing Update, I pointed out that the parallel to 1987 is very real…and, in that year, prices moved higher into late August and then started a correction. If we are truly rhyming, this may be the case for 2025. (In 1987, the highs came on August 23rd). The reality is that we are now in a 6-9 month window of extremely volatile longer-term cycles. The next two months are a place where there is strong potential for an exogenous event to occur.”
Comex Spot Gold Futures Daily H-L-C
Comex spot gold moved into a record high on Friday as spot futures sit just under the $3500 level. Central banks now own more gold than U.S. treasuries for the first time since 1996. Silver rocketed above the $40 level to the highest prices since September 2011.
Spot Silver Futures Monthly H-L-C
September is a cyclically rough month for stocks and typically we see at least a PIT (pullback in time). This is true, as well as the fact that global equities are breaking out of a long-term congestion area with huge upside potential possible.
The VIX set new 2025 lows Thursday before popping late with the selloff on Friday. The Buffet Indicator remains at record highs above 213%. The SPY/M2 has gone stratospheric.
SPX Quarterly H-L-C
*Still looking to initiate a short trade in the S&P E-mini. Updates on LinkedIn.
Trade is Collapsing
Leading Indicators are Collapsing
S&P 500 Stocks Above the 200-day MA
Breadth pulled back a bit for the SPX on the week, declining to 65.00%. The high in September 2024 was 72.92% and 82.70% in March of 2024. Divergence is still the name of the game. Given that only 10 stocks now make up 40% of the SPX, this is not unexpected. 10 stocks have accounted for 80% of the gains in the SPX since ‘Liberation Day.’
MAGS (Magnificent 7) Weekly Candles
The MAGS closed the week flat after testing the highs and closed down -0.03% on the bottom of the weekly range. Support is 58 and key against the 54.16/53.14 level. There is an upside target of 63.04 and resistance at 64.50. Both the SOX and SMH traded downside reversals and closed on bottom end of their ranges.
The RSP:SPY pulled back slightly from the previous week’s “rotation” trades. The spread chart remains extremely weak. The weekly is trending lower in an oversold position and the MACD is down but might be attempting a hook higher. Resistance is .294/.295. The IWM closed flat, up +0.14% in the middle of the range. The RSP traded a tight inside week and closed in the middle, down -0.46. NVDA tested the ATH and then reversed lower to close out the week down -2.14% on the bottom of the range. Bitcoin dropped to two month lows and tested support at 110/108, closing out the week down -4.59% on the bottom of the range. McClellan Oscillators are neutral for the Dow. The Yield Curve expanded further and set new highs for the move, closing at +0.611%. The 10YR yield declined, closing at 4.232%. Truflation moved up to 2.15%. Corporate bond spreads are at a 27-year low.
10YR-2YR Yield Curve Daily
VIX Weekly Candles 
The VIX traded a new 2025 low and settled up +8.44%, closing in the upper end of the range. The US Dollar rallied and failed and closed out the week on the bottom of the range, up +0.13%.
Nasdaq 100 Weekly Candles
Daily Breadth 
Breadth was mixed in Friday’s trade. Sentiment now reads greed.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
The CNN Fear and Greed Index moved lower to 64 and reads greed. Breadth improved slightly on the week and reads greed. Latest AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Pulls Back. The Dow A/D moved toward an ATH closing at 6980. The VIX traded a new 2025 low and settled up +8.44% closing in the upper end of the range. The Put/Call closed at 0.64 and reads extreme greed. The 52-week, A/D moved up to +2.90% and reads extreme greed. The Dow closed the week down -0.19%, closing on the top end of an inside week’s the range. The S&P settled down -0.10% in a downside reversal after setting a record high. The Nasdaq Composite was down -0.19% and the Nasdaq 100 was down -0.35%. The NYSE FANG closed up +0.61% in the bottom half of the range. The Russell was up +0.19% and the RSP down -0.46% in the middle of the range. The 10-year notes moved higher and closed on the top of the range at the highest levels since 28 April 2025. The yield on the 10YR moved down to 4.232%.
The CRB Index was up +1.20%. Crude oil ended fractionally higher on the week in another extremely tight range. The XLE broke out into a new high for the drive. Gold set a record high for the spot futures and settled on the top of the weekly range, just under the $3500 level. The daily RSI is frothy for the Gold but the weekly looks strong. The CoT for the S&P 500 went dead flat for the week. The CFTC S&P 500 Non-Commercial Net Positions ended at -187.8K.
Timing Points
Tuesday marks minor timing. There is CRITICAL timing coming from the 12th through the 19th of September. 
- 09/05 **
- 09/12 *** X critical weekend through
- 09/16-17 *** X critical week to the 19th
- 09/23 ***
- 10/01 ** key to bonds/dollar
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly H-L-C
The Dow closed the week down -0.19% on the top end of a tight week’s range. The daily stochastics and MACD are up with preliminary bearish divergences. The daily RSI is 64.9. The 200-day MA starts the week at 42838.60 and is at record highs. The action leaves the support and resistance numbers basically the same.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly Candles
Resistance is 45616/45624 and 45758/45774. Rallies through 45774 can test 45846 and 45918 with counts to 45990 and 46062. Closes over 46062 setup 46134 and 46206 to 46278. Resistance is critical at 46368 and closes above that level would offer fuel toward longer-term monthly targets in the 47400 level with targets of 46568 and 46954.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly H-L-C
The hourly is neutral on Friday’s close. Support is 45479 and 45311/45307. A break under 45307 sets up 45168 with counts to 45029/45025. Under 45025 should test 44834. Closes below 44834 count to 44579/44549 with full potential to 44315/44260. Daily closes under 45260 are near-term bearish and open counts to 43869 with potential to critical support at 43423/43420. Closes under 43420 should minimally test 42925/42872 with counts to 42000/41921.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Candles
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S&P 500 Cash Index: SPX
S&P 500 Index Weekly H-L-C
The S&P set a record high close and ATH intraday high at 6508.23. The daily stochastics and MACD are up with preliminary bearish divergences. The weekly has hooked higher from overbought levels with a preliminary bearish divergence. The daily RSI is 56.30. The hourly is slightly oversold on Friday’s close with a bear flag forming. The 200-day MA is 5955.75 and at record highs. The SPY set an ATH Thursday before a slight break Friday. The action leaves most of the technical levels the same.
SPY Weekly Candles
SPX Weekly Candles
Resistance is 6476 and 6483/6485 with resistance at 6494. Closes over 6485 will open counts to 6508 and 6584 with counts to resistance at 6602. A breakout over 6602 sets up 6638 and 6692. A breakout with closes over 6692 counts to 6764 and 6800. Closes over 6800 can carry to 6872 and 6908. Closes over 6908 have counts to 6944 and 6980 through 7016.
S&P 500 Index Hourly H-L-C
Support is 6438 and 6396/6395. Under 6395 sets up 6360 with counts to 6325/6322. A breakdown under 6322 should minimally test 6286/6282 with counts to the hourly double bottom at 6212/6201 with potential to 6113. Closes under 6113 setup potential to 5869, 5843 through 5805. A breakdown with closes under 5805 can carry to 5671 with full counts to critical near-term support at 5474/5470. Daily closes under 5470 are bearish to 5253/5229. Closes under 5229 open counts to 4995 with full potential to 4835.
| Resistance | Support |
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Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc., CNN, Koyfin, Trading View and AAII