This is a FREEMIUM Post
10YR Notes Monthly Continuation Candles
In September of 2024, the Fed started their rate cutting with the 10YR yield at 3.65%. Yields are now above 4.60% and the charts are retesting the lows. The weekly continuation charts is oversold and the monthly is hooking lower.
TLT Weekly H-L-C
There was an argument in the TLT and the 10YR for inverted H&S patterns and now that analysis has shifted as prices decline toward the mid-summer lows of 2024.
March 10YR Notes (TYH25) are oversold on the hourly chart and the TYH took out a critical area of support in overnight trade at 108180 and retested the low on 27 December 2024 at 108115. A further breakdown should see the 108065 lows of 26 December 2024. There is a large band of intermediate-term support at 108085/108040, Closes under 108040 would signal a move to 107115/107040 with full counts into the 105215/105105 level. Those prices reflect the lows of 16 October 2023. If futures clear the 105105 area with closes, we minimally would be looking at 104040/104010 (last seen in 2007) with full potential to critical monthly support at 100220 through 101135.
March 2025 (TYH) 10YR Notes Hourly H-L-C
10YR Note Futures Daily Continuation H-L-C
The spot daily is also under critical near-term support. Resistance is 108250 and 108280/108285. A drive back over 108285 should test 108320 with potential back toward the last swing highs at 109055/109060. Loses over 109060 minimally suggest 109165 through 109205. Closes over 109205 count to 109295 with full potential to critical short-term resistance at 110105/110115. Closes over 110115 should see 110205 through 110265. Daily closes over 110265 minimally count to 111070 to 111090 with potential to the December 2024 tops at 111205.
10YR Yield Daily Close
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