Week of March 14, 2025: Reality Check? Will We Hear Air Raid Sirens Next Week?
This is the third installment in these short-term timing updates with the notice that next week could be one of the most important weeks in stocks in at least five years as we have EXTREMLY CRITICAL TIMING on the 11th and 12th.
The focus is next on March 11-12 where we could see some fireworks. Expect to see at least one day next week where there is a very large range and/or net change. In fact, going out on a limb and saying that we could hear air raid sirens during next week’s trade.
From previous updates:
“If you were following along in early February, we pointed out that the week of February 21 was critical and a counter-move could begin in that critical timing.” “The high for the SPX futures basis the March contract SPAH, was set on February 19th at 6166.50.”: “…we indicated that this starts a time window that runs through the early part of May 2025 and closely resembles a pattern in late 2018 where the Dow lost -19.44%. If we follow this pattern the month of March could be seriously rough sailing for the stock market.”
Dow Jones Late 2018 Window
Prices have seen some extreme volatility in the past two weeks as the Tariff Tantrums continue to shake the markets.
Timing Dates for March
- 03/11-12 *** X critical
- 03/21 *** X
- 03/27-28 *** X critical
SPX Spot Futures Daily Continuation H-L-C
As of right now, Spot SPX futures have taken out a critical trendline from the late 2023 low through the August 2024 low and are trading right on top of the 200-day MA. The technical picture remains negative with the MACD down and RSI in sell mode.
S&P 500 Stocks Under the 200-day MA
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks under the 200-day MA is deteriorating/anemic. The market saw a massive influx of retail buying from 20 January 2025 through the end of February and it now looks as though this will be defined as a potential (massive) bull trap. Institutions have started nibbling at the market this week, but they also hold some of the lowest levels of funds in years. Sentiment is decidedly into fear right now, which begs a contrarian view. However, if the market is about to go into a full-fledge meltdown, the sentiment numbers mean precious little. The VIX has heated up this week and the selloff has calmed the record setting SKEW.
VIX Daily Close
SKEW Daily Close
It is possible that the coming week will offer a buying opportunity, but this may come at the expense of significantly lower prices. One chart that is CRITICAL to the markets here is the MAGS (MAG7). The 48.09/48.00 is critical, and if the MAGS takes this out decisively, there is really nothing in terms of support until the 42/40 level. As of this writing this morning, the MAGS is right on top of 48.
MAGS Daily H-L-C
A breakdown in the MAGS under 48 could take all the above down with it.
Support for spot SPX futures is 5684.00 and 5643.25. Closes under 5643.25 suggest 5519.75/5518.00. A breakdown under 5518.00 should minimally test 5120.00 with support at 5385.60/5381.60 and 5366.95.
Resistance is at 5771.90 and 5811.00/5815.60. A drive above 5815.60 sets up 5850.90 with counts to 5879.20 through 5888.20. Closes over 5888.20 open counts to 5933.90 with full potential to critical short-term resistance at 5988.80/5990.00. Closes over 5990.00 set up 6050.20 through 6056.70. Closes over 6056.70 suggest a retest of the highs at 6160.00/6166.50.
Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc., and Trading View