TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)
Major Indices Week of November 28, 2025
NYSE Volume
As goes tech, so goes the market. Stocks exploded higher in a shortened trading week with large gains in all the major indices, including the Russell, as tech led the way higher. As pointed out in last week’s update, seasonality trends favor higher prices into the year’s end as fund managers scramble to pad their accounts and chase their bonuses. They have, so far, vastly under-performed the market in 2025…mostly because ETFs now outnumber individual stocks on Wall Street.
Timing Points
Thursday 12/04 marks strong timing. The next critical timing falls on the 15th through the 17th. For a longer-term look at the timing, see the Special Report issued on 9 November 2025. 
- 12/04 ***
- 12/15 *** X may run through
- 12/17 *** X key to bonds/interest rates
- 12/24 **
- 01/09 *** X critical/fast moves
- 01/19-21 *** X
- 01/29-30 ***
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly H-L-C
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly H-L-C
The Dow soared +3.18% and set an ATH weekly close as prices bear down on the current all-time intraday highs. The market ended the month up fractionally and at the top end of the monthly range, at a new record high monthly close. Again, seasonality favors the month of December. On the short-term charts, the Dow has moved to the current “death zone” on the hourly. Those prices are 47755/47793. We will need to clear that area to set up a test of the intraday highs and push toward the 50K level for the Dow. The daily stochastics are up, rising from slightly oversold conditions. The MACD is trying to hook higher. The daily RSI is 63.20. The 200-day MA starts the week at 44606.40 and is at record highs. All the MAs are up right now. The weekly is down but threatening to hook higher again as it remains in a series of bearish divergences.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly Candles
Resistance is critical here at the “death zone” of 47755/47793. Closes above 47793 should minimally test 48040/48061 and will open potential for a retest of the record highs at 48430/48431. Daily closes over 48431 have potential to 48510. Closes over 48510 will open counts toward 48654 with potential to 48798. Above 48798 opens counts to 48942 and 49086. Closes over 49086 will open counts to 49230 and 49374.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly H-L-C
The hourly is overbought on Friday’s close. Support is 47271 and 46976/46975. A breakdown under 46975 should minimally test 46738 with counts to pivotal support at 46500/46495. Daily closes under 46495 should minimally retest 45452/45450. Closes under 45450 are a bearish signal and opens counts to 43916 with support at 44458/44948. Closes under 44948 should speed declines. Closes under 43916 setup critical support of 43340 with trading support at 43467. Under 43340 (before the end of the quarter) would be an extremely bearish signal and minimally suggest 42521 and would open long-term counts to 41126/41120.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Candles
| Resistance | Support |
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S&P 500 Cash Index: SPX
S&P 500 Index Monthly H-L-C
S&P 500 Index Weekly H-L-C
The S&P traded one of the best weeks of 2025, closing up sharply, +3.73% and setting a new all-time high weekly close. The market finished out eight consecutive months of gains with a new record high monthly close, at the top of the monthly range. Prices remain above the trendline breakout and that trendline currently sits at 6392.30. The daily chart is up with the stochastics turning up from a slightly oversold condition. The MACD is hooking higher from neutral readings. The daily RSI closed at 63.05. The weekly is down and still has a bearish divergence. The hourly is extremely overbought with Friday’s close. The 200-day MA is 6303.20 and at record highs.
SPY Weekly Candles
Prices hit resistance at 6850/6852 and closed right at that level. Continued rallies should 6882 and 6908/6920. Closes over 6920 open counts to 6944 and 6980 through 7016. A close over 7016 offers counts to 7088, 7160 and 7214. Closes over 7214 setup a drive to 7250 and 7286 while opening counts as high as 7448. Above 7488 counts to 7520 and 7592. A drive above 7592 can test 7664 with counts to 7736 and as high as 7808. Above 7808 can carry to 7862 with potential to 7916.
S&P 500 Index Hourly H-L-C
Support is 6773 and 6725. A breakdown under 6725 counts to 6886 with full counts to 6647/6645. Closes below 6645 offers counts to 6604/6599 with full potential to 6555/6550. Closes below 6550 suggest a retest of 6521 and opens counts to 6361/6360. A breakdown under 6360 should test 6123 with full counts into the 6044 level with critical hourly support at 6212/6201 and 6123. Daily closes under 6044 should minimally test 5877 and 5799/5798 with full counts to 5631/5628.
| Resistance | Support |
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Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc., CNN, Koyfin, Trading View and AAII