TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The DJIA staged a brutal outside week down and closed on the bottom of the weeks range, down -4.44%. Prices decidedly cleared the December lows and met a longer-term wave count objective at 32192/32170…settling below that level on the daily/weekly. The hourly chart is extremely oversold with the close on Friday and the action turned sentiment into the fear zone rather quickly. The hourly is also flashing a preliminary bullish divergence with Friday’s activity. The S&P500 closed at the bottom of an outside week down, settling -4.55% on the week. The big shock for the week came in the US Banking stocks with the Dow Jones Bank Index crashing a whopping -11.72% on the week with the failure of SVB…which sent all of the major US banks stocks plunging. In addition to the massive negative news dominating last week’s trade is the reality that interest payments on the national debt are set to outpace standard expenditures soon and is projected to account for 40% of all federal revenues by 2053. The Dow closed at the lowest level since October 26. 2022 and has now retraced almost 50% of the entire rally from the October 2022 lows to the December 2022 highs. Note that, even with the extremely bearish action last week, the 52-week highs/lows remains at a frothy +0.93% as of Friday’s close. The daily chart is hooking lower for the Dow and the action looks impulsive. That said, this latest breakdown builds a case for a C wave off the December highs. If this technical scenario held true, then a bottom could be expected here and a move back into the 33250 area would be in the mix.
Dow Jones Banking Average Weekly HLC
Support now 31783 and a continued failure here has longer-term potential toward critical support of 31727/31686. Closes under 31686 will open counts into the 30972/30960 level with support of 31423 and 31160. There is a gap on the daily chart that runs from 31160 to 31119. Critical weekly support runs from 30972/30950 and closes under that level would minimally open counts into the 30206/30173/30089 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly HLC
Resistance is at 32205 and 32466/32474. Rallies back above 32474 can carry to 32677 with potential to pivotal short-term resistance at 32888/32902. Closes over 32902 set up a drive to 33013 with counts to 33247. Closes over 33247 can test critical short-term resistance of 33572/33600. A breakout over 33600 is bullish and opens counts to 33980/34021. Rallies through 34021 suggest 34222 and 34334 with full counts back critical resistance at 34589.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly HLC
CNN Fear & Greed Index
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Support
- 31783 **
- 31727 *** ↓
- 31686 *** ↓
- 31575 **
- 31423 ***
- 31300 **
- 31161 ***
- 31119 *** ↓
- 30972/30950 *** ↓
- 30800 **
- 30650 **
- 30500/30454 *** ↓
Resistance
- 32205 **
- 32466/32474 *** ↑
- 32677 *** ↑
- 32888/32902 *** ↑
- 33013 **
- 33150 **
- 33247 *** ↑
- 33400
- 33572/33600 *** ↑
- 33790 **
- 33880 **
- 33980/34021 *** ↑
- 34222 **
- 34334 **
- 34400 **
- 34579 ***
S&P 500 Cash Index
Support is key here at 3843/3840, which represents a 50% retracement of the entire move from the October lows to the early February 2023 highs. A breakdown with closes under 3840 would setup 3799/3797 with counts to critical support against the 3760/3750 level. Under 3750 sets up a move to 3657 and full potential back to critical long-term support of 3505/3491. Closes under 3491 open counts to critical weekly support of 3195/3180.
S&P 500 Index Weekly HLC
Resistance is 3901 and 3925/3928 with pivotal short-term resistance at 3972 through 3989. Closes back above 3989 are near-term friendly and set up a drive to 4020 and possibly 4062/4065. A breakout above 4065 gives counts to 4108/4113, A drive above 4113 sets up a move to the gap area at 4203 to 4218 and longer-term counts to critical resistance of 4311/4315. Daily closes over 4315 open counts to 4385 with full potential to long-term critical resistance of 4486/4505. Closes over 4505 can carry to 4593 with full potential toward 4637.
Support
- 3843/3840 *** ↓
- 3810 **
- 3799/3797 *** ↓
- 3760/3750 *** ↓
- 3667/3657 *** ↓
- 3584 **
- 3505/3491 *** ↓
- 3383 ***
- 3328 **
- 3259 **
- 3233 **
- 3195/3180 *** ↓
Resistance
- 3901 **
- 3925/3928 *** ↑
- 3972 ***
- 3988/3989 *** ↑
- 4020 ***
- 4062/4065 *** ↑
- 4078 ** ↑
- 4108/4113 *** ↑
- 4203/4218 ***
- 4311/4315 *** ↑
- 4350 **
- 4385 *** ↑
- 4430 **
