04-01-2023 Technical Update DJIA & S&P500

April 2, 2023
Doug Sooley

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Stocks traded higher all week to stage a big recovery week as the first quarter came to an end. US bank stocks recovered as well with an advance of +4.57% with the Dow up +3.22%, the S&P500 up +3.48% and the Nasdaq up +3.37%. The action moves sentiment out of the fear side and 52-week H/L ratio ended the week at -3.97%. For the first quarter, the Dow closed up +0.38%, the S&P500 up +7.03% and the Nasdaq had one of its best quarters since 2020 ending with an advance of +20.49%. The Dow hourly is extremely overbought on the close Friday and the next pivotal area above is at 33458/33470.

1^st Quarter 2023 Main Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly HLC

Continued rallies should test pivotal overhead resistance at 33458/33470. A drive above 33470 should minimally test 33572 with potential toward 33891/33937 with trading resistance at 33699. A breakout over 33937 is bullish and opens counts to 34712 with resistance at 34222 and 34334/34342. Closes over 34712 ultimately offers full counts back critical resistance at 34589. A drive over 34712 can test significant long-term resistance at 34879 and 34995.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly HLC

Support for the Dow is 33018 and 32850. A breakdown under 32850 can test 32714 with counts to pivotal support of 32578/32575. Closes under 32575 setup a test of 32360 with counts to critical short-term support of 32140/32130. Daily closes under 32130 setup a retest of intermediate support in the 31727/31686 level. A breakdown with closes under 31686 will open counts into the 30972/30960 level with support of 31429/31423 and 31160. There is a gap on the daily chart that runs from 31160 to 31119.

Resistance

33458/33470 *** ↑
33572 *** ↑
33699 ***
33790 **
33891/33937 *** ↑
34041 **
34130 **
34222 *** ↑
34334/34342 *** ↑
34395 **
34495 **
34595 **
34712 *** ↑
34879 ***
34995 *** ↑

CNN Fear & Greed Index

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Support

33018 **
32950 **
32850 *** ↓
32714 **
32578/32575 *** ↓
32465 **
32360 *** ↓
32150 **
32140/32130 *** ↓
32040 **
31950 **
31809 ***
31727 *** ↓
31686 *** ↓
31575 **
31429/31423 *** ↓

S&P 500 Cash Index

Support is 4063 and 4039/4033. A breakdown under 4033 should test 4009 with counts to 3986/3980. Closes under the 3980 level should test 3959 with potential to pivotal near-term support of 3924/3920. Closes under 3920 setup a retest of 3868/3865. A breakdown under 3865 can test 3808 through 3797. A breakdown with closes under 3799/3797 opens counts to critical support against the 3760/3750 level. Under 3750 sets up a move to 3657 and full potential back to critical long-term support of 3505/3491.

S&P 500 Index Weekly HLC

Resistance is 4128 and key at 4155. Daily closes over 4155 should test the overhead gap area at 4203 to 4218 and longer-term counts to critical resistance of 4311/4315. Daily closes over 4315 open counts to 4385 with full potential to long-term critical resistance of 4486/4505. Closes over 4505 can carry to 4593 with full potential toward 4637. A breakout above 4637 opens potential toward 4748 and ultimately 4818.

S&P Sectors Performance