TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)
Tracking the Ten Year Note
The 10-year Notes moved sharply higher last week on Fed news, driving the spot contract (DEC23) into pivotal short-term resistance. The weekly is working off deeply oversold conditions and the daily stochastics are hooking higher at a high level…flashing a preliminary bearish divergence if prices cannot continue higher. MAR24 is now top step and DEC goes off the board this week…so MAR24 will take over the spot continuation charts at a small premium. Therefore, translate all spot prices to MAR24 following this week.
Ten Year Notes Futures Volume
(Source: CME Group)
Ten Year Notes Daily Continuation H-L-C
The daily continuation is trying to hook higher as it moves out of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Prices hit pivotal resistance at 112175/112250. There is an unmet objective on the spot daily at 113065. Continued rallies should carry spot prices to 113605 with a wall of intermediate-term resistance now between 113020 through 114075/114130. Closes over 11430 are bullish and suggest a move to 117000. Long-term resistance is 117000 and critical at 118270/118400. Any breakout over 118400 is bullish and can carry toward 122020 to 123005.
Ten Year Notes Weekly Continuation H-L-C
Ten Year Notes Hourly H-L-C MAR24
Support, basis the MAR24, is 111055, 110035, 109080 and pivotal at 108135/108110. Closes under 108110 counts to 107110 with potential to 105215. Support is critical on the monthly chart through 104050/104010.
Resistance
- 112175/112250 *** ↑
- 113020 **
- 113065 *** ↑ TARGET
- 114075/114130 *** ↑
- 115030 **
- 115185 **
- 116160 ***↑
- 117000 *** ↑
Support
- 111055 **
- 110035 **
- 109080 ***
- 108135/108110 *** ↓
- 107110 ***
- 106110
- 105215 *** ↓
- 104050/104010 *** ↓
Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc, Bilello Blog and YCharts