TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)

SPECIAL REPORT

12-20-2023 Critical Timing Update E-Mini Dow Futures

MAR24 (YMH) E-Mini Dow Futures Hourly H-L-C

Stocks traded a wide outside day down in this week’s critical cycle timing as The Grinch finally made an appearance during all the Holiday Cheer of nine straight up days. We are looking at spot E-Mini Dow futures YMH4 and SPOT E-Mini Dow futures here. Note that, while this is critical timing, it is still short-term timing. Bringing out sellers was not rocket science as the S&P 500 came within a fraction of the all-time record highs. If there is any place to take a shot at this market, it makes perfect sense to sell the old tops.

Spot Continuation E-Mini Dow Futures Daily H-L-C

The spot E-Mini Dow futures are reacting to very overbought daily conditions and the hourly reacted to a strong bearish divergence with Wednesday’s new highs. The YMH4 contract hit a high of 38012 intraday. There is an outstanding upside target on the daily continuation chart at 38758. Prices swooned below the last congestion wave lows on the hourly and tested and closed just above support of 37377. Support short-term is key at 37377 and short-term pivotal at 37227/37220. A breakdown under 37220 sets up a test of wave support at 37060/37040. Under 37040 counts to 36770/36758. Daily closes under 36758 gives a target of 36000 with support of 36366. Closes under 36000 opens potential to 35381 with full counts into critical support of 34760/34750.

Resistance is at 37536, 37627, key at 37701 and short-term pivotal at 37774/37780. A drive over 37780 minimally should test 37856/37865 with potential back to the highs at 38012. A breakout over 38012 can carry toward 38248/38250. Closes over 38250 suggest a move to the target at 38758 with resistance of 38460.

Timing Points  

• 12/20-21              *** X possible extreme
• 12/28                     **
• 01/04                     **
• 01/08-09              *** X possible extreme
• 01/15                     **
• 01/23-24              *** X Key week for financials
  

Support

• 37377 *** ↓
• 37227/37220 *** ↓
• 37060/37040 *** ↓
• 36840 **
• 36771/36758 *** ↓
• 36602 **
• 36366 *** ↓
• 36214 **
• 36001/36000 *** ↓
• 35801/35796 ** ↓
• 35660 **
• 35500 ***
• 35381 *** ↓
  

Resistance

• 37536 **
• 37627 **
• 37701 *** ↑
• 37774/37780 *** ↑
• 37940 **
• 38012 *** ↑
• 38125 **
• 38248/38250 *** ↑
• 38370 **
• 38460 ***
• 38758 *** ↑ TARGET
• 38887 **
• 39031 **
• 39175 ***
  

Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc.