SPX Futures Spot Daily
If you were following along in early February, we pointed out that the week of February 21 was critical and a counter-move could begin in that critical timing. Thursday/Friday stocks went into a swoon after the SPX hit a record high on Wednesday in the critical timing window.
Today (2/24/2025) marked some minor timing and given the support just below, we may catch here for some short-term chop before heading into next week’s critical timing,
In LinkedIn updates, we indicated that this starts a time window that runs through the early part of May 2025 and closely resembles a pattern in late 2018 where the Dow lost -19.44%. If we follow this pattern the month of March could be seriously rough sailing for the stock market.
SPAH All Sessions Hourly H-L-C
Next week starts off with some extremely critical timing on Monday/Tuesday and could bring with it some fireworks (knives out for the Ides of March). We may see some real March Madness beginning next week. If this happens, expect to see it continue throughout the month with some heavy duty cycle hitting throughout the month. At the very least, volatility should increase with potential for some large ranges.
Timing Dates for March
- 03/03-05 *** X critical
- 03/11-12 *** X critical
- 03/21 *** X
- 03/27-28 *** X critical
As of right now, March futures are holding just above a critical trendline from the August 2024 bottom and the 100-day simple moving average is in the same area. Volume Profile suggests that under the 5850/5842 (basis the cash SPX) level the floor could drop out for the spot futures. March futures will leave the board on 21 March 2025.
The 100-day simple comes in around 5975.40 and taking that out would signal a minimal move to 5919.50 with support at the 5935.50 low of 3 February 2025. Closes under 5919.50 set up a decline into the 5766.70 area with support at 5809.00 and 5800.75.
Resistance is at 6035.10 and 6060.20. A drive back through 6060.20 should test 6080.50 with potential to pivotal short-term resistance at 6100.80/6101.20. Closes over 6101.20 should minimally test 6123.50/6125.90. Closes over 6125.90 sets up a retest of the highs at 6166.50.
Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc.